The predictability of real estate returns and market timing

Entropy and Predictability of Stock Market Returns¤

We examine the predictability of stock market returns by employing a new metric entropy measure of dependence with several desirable properties. We compare our results with a number of traditional measures. The metric entropy is capable of detecting nonlinear dependence within the returns series, and is also capable of detecting nonlinear\a±nity" between the returns and their predictions obtain...

Predictability of Asset Returns and the E¢ cient Market Hypothesis

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the E¢ cient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at di¤erent frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market e¢ ciency. The paper then focuses on the theoretical foundation of the EMH, and sho...

Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market efficiency. T...

Forecasting real estate returns using financial spreads

This paper examines the predictability of real estate asset returns using a number of time series techniques. A vector autoregressive model, which incorporates financial spreads, is able to improve upon the out of sample forecasting performance of univariate time series models at a short forecasting horizon. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the explanatory power of such models is ...

The contribution of a mature real estate market to urban regeneration: What are the prerequisites?